The Rules of Logic Part 4: The Laws of Noncontradiction and Transitive Properties

The two most fundamental rules of logic are the Law of Noncontradiction and the Law of Transitive Properties. In fact, all of the other rules of logic stem from these two laws. Both laws are very simple and easy to understand, yet people frequently ignore or misuse them. Therefore I will attempt to explain how they actually work.

Law of Noncontradiction

This law simply states that something cannot be A and not A simultaneously. In other words, two mutually exclusive things cannot exist at the same time. So, for example, the Law of Noncontradiction tells us that it is impossible for both an immovable object and an unstoppable force to exist simultaneously, because each one cancels the other out. In other words, if there is an object that is truly immovable, then there cannot be an unstoppable force because this would contradict the properties of the immovable object. Conversely, if there is an unstoppable force, then there cannot be an immovable object because it would contradict the properties of the unstoppable force.

Beyond unraveling fun philosophical paradoxes, this law has some very real and useful applications. It is, in fact, the reason that math works consistently. Let me use an example from a previous post.

  1. The sum of the angles of any triangle = 180 degrees
  2. For triangle ABC, angle A = 90
  3. For triangle ABC, angle B= 45
  4. Therefore, for triangle ABC, angle C = 45

Why is the conclusion valid? Quite simply, its valid because the Law of Noncontradiction states that it is not possible for all of these premises to be true and for angle C to be anything other than 45 degrees. In other words, if C was anything other than 45, it would contradict the other premises, therefore C must be 45 degrees.

This brings me to the most important and practical application of this law. Because of the Law of Noncontradiction, you have to use consistent logic in your arguments. In other words, your arguments and beliefs cannot conflict with one another. For example, suppose that I said, “Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark is one of the best movies ever because Harrison Ford is in it” (i.e., I am asserting the Harrison Ford’s presence alone is the reason that it is one of the best movies ever). You then respond with, “he is also in Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, is it one of the best movies ever?” According to the Law of Noncontradiction, I have to either claim that Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is one of the best movies ever, or I have to reject my previous claim and acknowledge that Ford’s presence alone is not enough to qualify a movie as one of the greatest of all time. I cannot simultaneously claim that Raiders is great simply because Ford is in it and that Kingdom sucks even though Ford is in it. To be clear, its fine to say Ford’s acting was good in Raiders but bad in Kingdom, but my argument was that his presence alone was enough to make Raiders a great movie, and it is that argument which is clearly flawed.

Law of Transitive Properties

This law simply states that the properties of one premise must transition or carry over to the other premises. This is the law that you apply when trying to solve simple logical puzzles. For example:

Bob is taller than Bill. Bob is shorter than Tom. Jane is taller than Tom. Is Jane taller than Bill?

We can rearrange these facts into premises in a syllogism:

  1. Jane is taller than Tom
  2. Tom is taller than Bob
  3. Bob is taller than Bill
  4. Therefore, Jane is taller than Bill

You see, the property of height transitioned to each premise, resulting in the conclusion that Jane must be taller than Bill. You can also demonstrate this law using math examples.

  1.  2+2 = 4
  2.  4+4 = 8
  3.  8+8 = 16
  4.  Therefore, 2+2+4+8 = 16

This law can also be applied to equivalencies. For example:

  1. A=B
  2. B=C
  3. Therefore, A = C

It is important to note that this law only works with true premises. In other words, if one of the properties is incorrect, then the argument will not work, and it will often result in a slippery slope fallacy. For example:

  1. If you use marijuana you will start doing other drugs
  2. If you start doing other drugs you will die of an overdose
  3. Therefore, using marijuana will make you die of an overdose

The problem here should be obvious, neither premise is consistently true, therefore the argument does not work. A closely related problem occurs when premises are true under certain conditions. For example:

  1. Under certain conditions A causes B
  2. Under a different set of conditions B causes C
  3. Under a different set of conditions C causes D
  4. Therefore A causes D

The problem here is that A will only lead to D if all three of the precise conditions are met. You could say that, “under a very precise serious of changing conditions A will cause D” but more often than not, the odds of the conditions changing in the right way for A to cause D are so low that it isn’t work worrying about A causing D. For example:

  1. GMOs create novel combinations of genes
  2. Under certain conditions, bacteria in your gut can incorporate DNA from your food into their genome
  3. In some cases, when bacteria take in new DNA they can form new proteins
  4. Under some conditions some proteins are toxic
  5. Therefore GMOs create toxic proteins

I intend on dealing with this argument in more detail in a later post, but for now my point is simply that the conclusion is not valid because the odds of this sequence actually playing out are extremely low (it is a slippery slope fallacy). Also, there is no reason why this couldn’t happen with non-GMO food, so this argument actually violates the Law of Noncontradiction as well.

Other posts on the rules of logic:

 

 

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What Does It Actually Mean to “Do Your Homework”?

The anti-vaccine movement touts many appealing rallying cries, such as “do your homework,” “educate before you vaccinate,” and “think for yourself.” These slogans sound excellent and I whole-heartedly agree with them, but unfortunately, the actual actions of the anti-vaccers are dramatically different from the actions proposed in their favorite catch phrases. The reality is that when an anti-vaccer says, “do your homework” they actually mean, “read a bunch of blogs that weren’t written by scientists and listen to a bunch of anecdotal evidence.” To actually be well-informed on a scientific issue, you absolutely have to read an enormous body of peer-reviewed literature. It is the one place where new facts are published. Everything else is just someone’s re-interpretation or opinion about those facts. Why on earth would you want second hand information when you can have the original?

A further hypocrisy of the anti-vaccine movement is that they absolutely refuse to fact check. To be clear, this is not just ad hominem name calling, I can prove this by citing some of their most common arguments. For example, the argument that, “if vaccines work, my unvaccinated child shouldn’t be a threat to your vaccinated child” has appeared on innumerable anti-vaccine blogs and memes. On several occasions I have had an anti-vaccer tell me that they have done their homework, then immediately proceed to bring up this argument, usually in the form of a question. In reality, anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the immune system would know the answer to this question because, as I explained in another post, the answer comes in the form of the most basic facts about vaccines! So asking this question clearly demonstrates that you don’t understand even the most fundamental facts about the topic you claim to be an expert on.

Another classic example is the claim that “vaccines are injected into the blood stream.” The claim is totally fictitious and takes only seconds to look up, yet I constantly see it appearing on anti-vaccine memes. Similarly, I frequently see memes that claim that the safety of vaccines has never been tested. One popular one shows a lady pointing to an empty chair and reads, “I’d like you to meet the person who tested the safety of vaccines.” In reality, mere seconds on Google Scholar or Pub Med will reveal thousands of scientists who have tested the safety of vaccines. The claim is demonstrably and unequivocally false and takes only seconds to debunk, yet anti-vaccers make it constantly. Even if you want to blindly disregard the results of those studies, it is an outright lie to claim that they don’t even exist (and no, they weren’t all bought off by Big Pharma).

The fundamental problem here is the sources being used. Anti-vaccers claim to fact check, but their version of fact checking is simply reading other unscientific blogs which merely act as echo chambers for what they already thought was true. Being well-informed and educating yourself requires you to use good sources. It does not matter how many blogs you read or memes you post, if you haven’t read the original peer-reviewed literature you aren’t well-informed and you haven’t done your homework. So to all the anti-vaccers out there, I encourage you to actually live by your pithy slogans and truly fact check, rather than blindly believing every quack website on the internet.

Addendum: It’s worth pointing out that you can find peer-reviewed anti-vaccine papers if you look hard enough, but you should not make the mistake of blindly believing those papers and ignoring all others. For almost any position, you will find a few outliers, which is why you must always look at the entire body of scientific evidence, not just the handful of papers that agree with you (details here).

How anti-vaccers fact check. Image via chainsawsuit.com

How anti-vaccers fact check. Image via chainsawsuit.com

 

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15 Common Anti-Vaccine Arguments and Why They are a Load of Crap

In this post, I will address fifteen of the most commonly used arguments against vaccines. Throughout this post, you should notice that none of these arguments require a great deal of scientific knowledge or logical ability to defeat, and anyone with an unbiased mind and internet capable computer can find the flaws in them in minutes. I realize that this post is lengthy, but its broken up in sections so you can read only the parts that you care about.

#1 We shouldn’t trust the doctors/scientists that support vaccines because they are paid by pharmaceutical companies/the government
#2 Many doctors/scientists are coming forward against vaccines
#3 If vaccines work then why do you care if my child is vaccinated?
#4 No vaccine is 100% safe
#5 Vaccines contain many TOXIC chemicals that aren’t safe at ANY dosage!
#6 Vaccines did not eliminate diseases, they were declining before vaccines were introduced
#7 There have been no scientific studies that…
#8 Vaccines can overwhelm a child’s immune system
#9 Vaccines cause autism
#10 The majority of people who got the disease were vaccinated for it
#11 Disease outbreaks occur among vaccinated populations
#12 Vaccines contain chicken proteins, monkey cells, calf serum, etc.
#13 Natural immunity is better than the immunity from vaccines
#14 No vaccine is 100% effective
#15 Vaccines contain aborted fetus cells

#1 We shouldn’t trust the doctors/scientists that support vaccines because they are paid by pharmaceutical companies/the government
This argument is total nonsense. Beyond the fact that it’s an ad hominen fallacy, it’s premise is blatantly untrue. Only a small portion of vaccine researchers are paid by pharmaceutical companies or the government. The a huge portion of vaccine research comes from independent scientists who are working out of universities and are funded by grants that they apply for. Further, this argument represents a fundamental paradox in the thinking of the anti-vaccine movement. This argument arises in almost every conversation I have with them, yet in those same conversations, they inevitably claim to have unbiasedly considered the evidence. These two claims are incompatible. If you are blindly writing off every scientist that disagrees with you, then you have not actually considered the evidence. Finally, this argument overlooks that fact that many of the anti-vaccine advocates that they blindly believe make quite a bit of money off of books and alternative “medicines.” Go to the website of almost every anti-vaccine advocate and you will find a store selling their products. So the few scientists and doctors who oppose vaccines have a monetary incentive for holding their position as well. So this argument is completely logically inconsistent.

 

#2 Many doctors/scientists are coming forward against vaccines
First, realize that this “many” is an exceedingly small portion of professionals, so this entire argument is an inflation of conflict fallacy. Further, this argument is also a blatant appeal to authority fallacy. It doesn’t matter what crackpot position you believe in, you can find someone with an advanced degree that agrees with you. You can find Ph.D.s in physics that argue that gravity isn’t true, and M.D.s that argue that smoking doesn’t cause cancer, but it would be absurd of me to say, “Many doctors are coming out and saying that smoking doesn’t cause cancer, therefore smoking is safe.” Also, notice the inconsistency in the anti-vaccer’s logic. Any time that I bring up a paper the shows that vaccines work/are safe, they instantly respond with, “those researchers were paid by pharmaceutical companies and shouldn’t be trusted” (which is rarely true), but any time that someone agrees with them, they instantly believe that source. This is classic cherry-picking of data (i.e., its a sharpshooter fallacy).

 

#3 If vaccines work then why do you care if my child is vaccinated?
Anyone who uses this argument (which is almost every anti-vaccer I have ever talked to) has just demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that they don’t have the foggiest clue what they are talking about, because the answer comes from the most basic facts about vaccines.

In brief, non-scientific terms, this is how the immune system works. A germ enters your body and an immune cell finds it, memorizes it, returns to the central command, and cells are generated specifically to combat that germ. All of this takes time, however, and often by the time that your immune system has the troops ready to go, the germ has already replicated and taken hold. At this point, it’s all out war and you are going to be sick for a while. What a vaccine does is teach your body to recognize the germ before you actually encounter it. Your body then keeps low levels of antibodies around that are specific for that germ. These act as a first line of defense. That way, when the germ is detected, it can be taken out before it becomes a problem. Here’s the catch though, your body doesn’t keep a full regiment on alert at all times. It only keeps low levels of the antibody circulating. So, for a normal exposure to a germ, a vaccinated person’s immune system can take care of it, but, if you get a large exposure, it can overwhelm that first line of defense and you still have a full blown war. This is one of the reasons why vaccines sometimes fail. To put it another way, if someone with H1N1 sneezes in your face, you’re probably going to get the flu even if you’re vaccinated.

So, how does this relate to the original argument? Vaccines lead to herd immunity. When a large number of individuals are vaccinated, very few people get exposed to a large dose of the disease, and therefore very few people get it. When there are unvaccinated people around, however, you are much more likely to get a large dose of the disease and actually get sick. So even though I am vaccinated, my risk of getting the disease is higher than it would be if you were also vaccinated. Further, there are many elderly people and immunocompromised people who cannot receive vaccines, but are protected by herd immunity. Additionally, for various reasons vaccines don’t always take hold. In a very small number of cases (usually between 1 and 5% depending on the vaccine), the vaccine doesn’t work, leaving the person completely vulnerable. So by not vaccinating, you are putting all of those people at risk. In short, vaccines work and reduce disease even if you don’t vaccinate, but they work much more effectively when everyone is vaccinated.

This video does a nice job of visualizing what I just said (skip to 1:45 if you just want to see the simulation). You can also check out this really cool simulation showing how vaccine levels effect disease rates.

Also, here are two recent studies that shows a very strong association between low levels of vaccines and disease outbreaks. It’s herd immunity at work.

Please carefully note how the measles outbreaks are centered around the communities with low vaccination rates. Image from Knol et al. 2013

Please carefully note how the measles outbreaks are centered around the communities with low vaccination rates. Image from Knol et al. 2013


 

bridge analogy

If anti-vaccers used logic consistently, then this is how they would view bridges since they also aren’t 100% safe. Image via Refutations to Anti-Vaccine Memes

#4 No vaccine is 100% safe
True, but you know what else isn’t 100% safe, not getting vaccinated! The anti-vaccine crowd loves to list the potential side effects of vaccines while totally ignoring the dangerous side effects of not getting vaccinated. Side effects like, measles, polio, hepatitis, deafness, death, etc. The truth is, most vaccines have extremely low levels of dangerous side effects, so it comes down to a basic risk assessment. The risk associated with getting the vaccine is lower than the risk associated with not getting the vaccine, therefore you are safer with the vaccines. Also, thanks to herd immunity, the risk associated with not getting the vaccine goes up as the number of people who aren’t vaccinated increases (see #3). So every additional person that you convince not to get vaccinate increases your risk of getting sick. Don’t believe me? get on Google Scholar and look at the literature. There have been tons of studies that have looked at side effect rates and/or disease rates, and they paint a clear picture: vaccines work and have low risks of side effects.

Here are a few studies to get you started, Madison et al. 2002; Obonyo and Lau 2006; Low et al. 2008; Lu et al. 2011; Schmitz et al. 2011)

 

#5 Vaccines contain many TOXIC chemicals that aren’t safe at ANY dosage!
I put “toxic” and “any” in caps because that is generally how I see anti-vaccine nuts put it. The first half of this is true, vaccines do contain “toxic” chemicals, but the second half is total crap. Almost everything is toxic at high enough levels and safe at low enough levels, and the levels in vaccines are extremely low. Further, this argument ignores that fact that chemicals are everywhere. You and I are made of chemicals. Your organically grown fruit is made of chemicals. Everything is made of chemicals, and most things (you and your organic fruit included) contain “toxic” chemicals. Here are a few examples of the most commonly attacked chemicals in vaccines.

  • Formaldehyde – As anti-vaccers point out, formaldehyde is known to be extremely carcinogenic. What they fail to point out is that your body requires small amounts of it to function properly. Also, it is present in many fruits and vegetables. In fact, the amount of formaldehyde in an organically grown pear is typically greater than the amount in a vaccine, yet no one fears the toxic pear.
  • Aluminum – Is aluminum toxic? yes. Is it in vaccines? yes. Is it in breast milk? also yes. That’s right, mommy’s goodness contains toxic aluminum. In fact, there is more aluminum in breast milk than in vaccines. During the first six months, on a regular vaccine schedule, an infant gets roughly 4 milligrams of aluminum from vaccines (a very tiny amount). During those same six months, an infant would get roughly 10 milligrams (also a low level) from breastfeeding, or 40 milligrams (still a low level) from baby formula. So, no matter what you do, if you feed your child during its first 6 months of life, you will be giving it more aluminum than it would receive from a vaccine. So if you aren’t worried about the aluminum in its milk, then please shut up about the aluminum in vaccines.
  • Mercury – Probably no chemical gets more press from anti-vaccine nuts than mercury, and the funny thing is, vaccines don’t really contain mercury, they contain thimerosal, which is a mercury-containing preservative. Now, you may say, “wait a minute, if vaccines contain thimerosal, and thimerosal contains mercury, than vaccines contain mercury.” Technically you are correct, but apparently you didn’t pay attention in chemistry class. You see, how chemicals behave depends on what other chemicals they are bound to. The highly toxic mercury is methyl mercury. Thimerosal is ethyl mercury, which is not toxic unless its in extremely high doses. You may think that mercury is mercury and I’m just playing semantic games, but as I will demonstrate, you’re dead wrong.

    Let me use an illustration to try to demonstrate that chemicals properties change when they are bound to different substances. Sodium and chlorine are both highly toxic. If you were to sprinkle either one across your food on a regular basis, you would be in big trouble. Yet when they are combined into sodium chloride, wet get table salt (sea salt is also mostly sodium chloride), which is totally safe unless eaten in excess. You don’t get the symptoms of chlorine poisoning from salt, even though salt is a chlorine-containing preservative. Even so, you don’t get the symptoms of mercury poisoning from thimerosal even though thimerosal is a mercury-containing preservative. This is high school chemistry.Finally, as of 2001, technological advances had provided alternatives to thimerosal that don’t contain any mercury of any kind. So to both appease the public and err on the side of caution (there is no evidence that the amount of thimerosal in vaccines was toxic), thimerosal was removed from all vaccines except a few forms of flu shot. So really this whole section was a waste because almost all modern vaccines contain no mercury of any form, yet this is the number 1 chemical that the anti-vaccine crowd cites as being harmful. Once again, they are clearly not fact checking their memes and blogs.

 

#6 Vaccines did not eliminate diseases, they were declining before vaccines were introduced
This argument contains a grain of truth, but it is distorted and inaccurate. It is true, that disease rates had decline prior to vaccines, but that does not mean that vaccines were not the final weapon that ended them all together. By way of analogy, we were winning WWII before dropping the atomic bomb, but it would be absurd to say that the atomic bomb didn’t end the war. Similarly, diseases had decline prior to vaccines, but it is absurd to say that vaccines didn’t play a pivotal role in eliminating them.

Further, the fact that vaccines were responsible is clearly demonstrated by the incidences of these diseases popping back up when vaccine rates are lowered, and from developing countries which haven’t had all of our other medical improvements but still show greatly reduced disease rates when given vaccines. Why is it that disease rates plummet when we introduce vaccines to developing countries that don’t have clean water or good sanitation? Also, if you look at the dates at which diseases disappeared, they are scattered over a wide range, but are always associated with the introduction of vaccines. If these diseases were eliminated by clean water and sanitation (as the anti-vax crowd suggests) then why weren’t all the diseases eliminated together?

 

#7 There have been no scientific studies that…
I have seen countless variations of this: “there have been no scientific studies that compare safety between the vaccinated and unvaccinated,” “there have been no scientific studies that have looked at long term effects,” etc. Obviously, I can’t make the blanket statement that every single permutation of this argument is false, but what I can say is that every single one of these that I have ever heard has been false. For goodness sake people, get on Google Scholar and do your homework! It’s really not that hard to fact check these claims. The problem is that anti-vaccers have no interest in fact checking. They would rather blindly believe their favorite blog or pithy meme. In debates, I have frequently responded to these claims by posting articles that tested exactly what the anti-vaccer just claimed had never been tested, at which point they invariably either pretend that I didn’t just debunk their crap (red herring fallacy) and move on to some other nonsense, or they respond with argument #1 (ad hominem and ad hoc fallacies) and write off the article as biased and untrustworthy (hardly the response of someone who is interested in truth). Finally, this form of argument is what is known as a argument from ignorance fallacy. It basically says, “we don’t know that vaccines are safe, therefore they are dangerous.” That type of thinking is obviously not logically valid.

By way of example, there is a very common article passed around by anti-vaccine nuts called “9 Questions That Stump Every Pro-Vaccine Advocate and Their Claims.” Most of these questions revolve around scientific articles that supposedly don’t exist, but a few seconds on the internet quickly brings up this refutation that shows just how easy it is to find these “non-existent” science articles. All that the anti-vaccers have to do was enter these claims into Google Scholar and they could have debunked them in seconds. Instead, they choose to blindly believe that these articles don’t exist and continue to repost this blog. Notice, this is not something that is in anyway ambiguous. These articles either exist or they don’t, and the fact that anti-vaccers continue to claim that the research has never been done despite the fact that the papers are readily available on Pub Med and Google Scholar should cause a huge red flag to go up, because it proves that anti-vaccers have utterly no interest in facts and are not doing even rudimentary background checks on their arguments.

 

#8 Vaccines can overwhelm a child’s immune systemvaccines don't overwhelm a child's immune system
This argument is just downright silly. It goes something like this, “A newborns’ immune system isn’t fully formed yet, so by giving it multiple vaccines right away you can overload its immune system and make it sick (or even immunocompromised).” The reality is that this argument is utter nonsense. Vaccines expose children to a very small number of antigens (antigens are the proteins on the surface of a cell that the immune system uses to recognize and respond to it, each type of virus, bacteria, and cell in your body has its own unique antigen). In contrast, the environment around them exposes them to hundreds, even thousands of antigens daily. Do you know what happens when your kid worms its way through the birth canal? It gets covered in all manner of nasty germs. Do you know what happens when you cuddle the thing and breathe on it? It gets covered in all manner of nasty germs. Do you know what happens when you pass it off to the next person who then breathes on it? It gets covered in a whole new set of nasty germs. Unless you have a C section in a clean room, and instantly stick your kid into a incubation chamber, it will be exposed to far more antigens in its first few hours of life outside the womb then it will ever get from vaccines. Arguing that vaccines will overwhelm a child’s immune system is like arguing that a teaspoon will make an Olympic swimming pool overflow.

 

#9 Vaccines cause autism
In short, no, they don’t. This argument has done more damage than any other anti-vaccine argument, and it is soooooo easy to debunk, yet anti-vacciners refuse to accept the contrary evidence. In brief, here’s what happened. In 1998 Dr. Wakefield published a paper which suggested that vaccines were causing autism, and the media and general public went nuts with it. So scientists responded by doing what scientists do with an extraordinary claim like this: they tested it over and over again, but what they consistently found was that vaccines were not causing autism. So, in 2010 an official investigation into Wakefield’s claims was made by the British General Medical Counsel. In brief, it found that he was a dishonest, unethical scumbag who had falsified his results and was being paid by parents who thought their kids had been harmed by vaccines (odd, I thought it was supposed to be the scientists who are supporting vaccines that were being paid off). The journal that published his paper has now retracted it, multiple of his other papers have been retracted from various journals, and Wakefield is no longer allowed to practice medicine.

Further, thimerosal is generally the chemical in vaccines that gets accused of causing autism, but it was removed from vaccines in 2001 (see #5). So, if it had been causing autism, then autism rates should have lowered, or at least slowed down, after 2001, but guess what, they didn’t. So in summary, the article proposing that vaccines cause autism was a fraud invented by an unethical doctor, countless papers since that one have failed to find a link between vaccines and autism, and autism rates continue to climb even though that chemical that supposedly causes autism is no longer in vaccines. All around, this argument is one big, steamy, pile of crap.

Here is the one really important question that people who use this argument need to answer, and are completely incapable of answering: if vaccines cause autism, then why has study after study found that autism rates are the same between vaccinated and unvaccinated children? If vaccines cause autism, then the autism rates must be higher among the vaccinated, but they aren’t. A recent study with a sample size of over 1.2 million children very convincingly demonstrated this. Vaccines do not cause autism, it’s that simple.

 

#10 The majority of people who got the disease were vaccinated for it
In some cases this is true, but ultimately, it is irrelevant. Let me use an example to illustrate (I’m going to use fictional numbers to make the math easy to follow, but this is generally speaking how it works in real outbreaks). Suppose that I told you that 150 out of 200 people (75%) who got disease X had been vaccinated for it? Anti-vaccers hop all over numbers like this and say, “see, clearly vaccines don’t work if the majority of people who get the disease were vaccinated for it.” The problem is that, as any mathematician will tell you, it is the relative percentages, not the raw numbers that matter. So, you also have to look at the total percentage of people who were vaccinated for that disease. Let’s suppose that 95% of the population had been vaccinated, and there were 100,000 people in the population (95,000 vaccinated, 5,000 unvaccinated). That means that the disease rate was 1 in 633 among the vaccinated, and 1 in 100 among the unvaccinated. So yes, of course the majority of people who got the disease were vaccinated against it. That is a simple and irrelevant result of the fact that the majority of people were vaccinated. What’s important is the relative percentages, not the raw numbers. Even though the majority of people who got disease X had been vaccinated, the actual disease rate was over 6 times lower among the vaccinated. Further, in many cases (such as whooping cough), even when the vaccine fails, the severity of the disease is still lessened. So it’s not as simple as whether or not they got it, severity also has to be included.

Notice, most of the people who got the disease were vaccinated, but that is only because the vast majority of people in the study were vaccinated. When we look at percentages, the disease rates were much higher among the unvaccinated. Figure from Schmitz et al. 2011.

Notice, most of the people who got the disease were vaccinated, but that is only because the vast majority of people in the study were vaccinated. When we look at percentages, the disease rates were much higher among the unvaccinated. Figure from Schmitz et al. 2011.

 


#11 Disease outbreaks occur among vaccinated populations
This is another classic example of a sharpshooter fallacy. Anti-vaccers like to point out specific examples where disease outbreaks have occurred in a vaccinated population. The problem is that these examples totally ignore both the many unvaccinated communities that also had outbreaks, and the thousands of vaccinated communities that didn’t have outbreaks. As previously explained (see #3), like all medicines, vaccines do not work 100% of the time, but they do work most of the time. So, of course, outbreaks will still occur in vaccinated communities, but when we zoom out and look at the big picture, we see that outbreaks occur less often among vaccinated communities than unvaccinated communities (see #10). So this argument is another example of cherry-picking data.

Further, this argument ignores several key features of these outbreaks. First, they usually occur in college dorms and other situations where close proximity increases the chances of the vaccine failing (see #3). Also, they are usually easily contained. That is, outbreaks are confined to a specific university or community. This containment is because of herd immunity. When outbreaks occur in areas where very few people are vaccinated, they tend to be much harder to control (see the video in #3). Also, these outbreaks are very often triggered by travel to other countries where vaccines aren’t prevalent. For example, in 2011 there were 222 cases of measles in the US. Two-hundred of those were linked to travel to other countries. So, in fact, these outbreaks provide strong support FOR the effectiveness of vaccines, because they are usually caused by contact with unvaccinated populations. To put this another way, 90% of measles cases in 2011 were CAUSED by people who had not been vaccinated. This is extremely strong evidence that herd immunity works, and opposing vaccines is dangerous. (Note: I did not cherry pick these data, this is an extremely common trend among disease outbreaks).

Related to this argument, is the argument that, “I was vaccinated and still got sick.” This is once again, a sharpshooter fallacy. You have to look at the big picture, not an isolated datum.

 

#12 Vaccines contain chicken proteins, monkey cells, calf serum, etc.
Yes, vaccines do contain some of these things (though anti-vaccers often list items which aren’t actually in vaccines), but who cares? I often hear anti-vaccers make this claim as it if obviously follows that containing these things is bad and unsafe, but nothing could be further from the truth. Modern medical practices use animal tissues, cells, serum, etc. all the time. A great many lives have been saved by using animal parts. This argument is what is known as an appeal to emotion fallacy. It sounds bad, so people respond to it as if it is bad, and never stop to actually consider the issue. It evokes an emotional response that blocks logical thought. Unless you can provide evidence that these things are bad for you, then you don’t have an argument.

To be fair, if you’re a hard core animal rights advocate, then this argument is probably compelling for you, but most people who I hear using this argument are concerned about human health, not the treatment of animals.

These data came from the deaths of over 2.5 million children under the age of 5 in 2002. Despite what antivaccers want you to believe, these diseases are deadly, and it is clearly better to vaccinate them than it is to let them risk death in the name of acquiring natural immunity. Data via the CDC.

These data came from the deaths of over 2.5 million children under the age of 5 in 2002. Despite what antivaccers want you to believe, these diseases are deadly, and it is clearly better to vaccinate them than it is to let them risk death in the name of acquiring natural immunity. Data via the CDC.

#13 Natural immunity is better than the immunity from vaccines
For sake of argument, let’s assume that this statement is true. My response would then be, so what!? You generally get natural immunity from actually getting the disease! Are you honestly saying that it would be better for your kid to get polio then it would be for him to get vaccinated for polio, because after getting polio he will be better protected from polio in the future (if he survives of course)? That’s just nuts! How can anyone possible say that it would be better for kids to go through these horrible, often life threatening diseases than it would be for them to be protected from them in the first place? This is possibly the stupidest anti-vaccine argument I have ever heard (and that’s saying something).

 

#14 No vaccine is 100% effective
The fact that anti-vaccers use this argument should be a big clue about the worthlessness of their claims. Just think about this argument for a minute, “they don’t work 100% of the time, therefore we shouldn’t use them.” That’s downright idiotic. Virtually nothing works 100% of the time. Here are just a few examples of other things that don’t work 100% of the time: seat belts, air bags, cancer treatments, condoms, safety harnesses, helmets, parking brakes, air filters, etc. Clearly, the fact that a safety mechanism isn’t 100% effective DOES NOT mean that we shouldn’t use it. Also, the reasons why vaccines sometimes fail have already been discussed in several other sections (see #3, 10, 11, and 12).

Closely related to this argument is the claim that vaccines don’t work/shouldn’t be used because some of them require periodic boosters. Again, this is just silly. Its about like saying that changing the oil in your car won’t help it last longer because you will have to change it again in a few months. Yes, some vaccines require boosters, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t work, it just means that they have limits.

 

#15 Vaccines contain aborted fetus cells
No, they most certainly do not. Here’s the deal, back in the 60s, cells were taken from a few aborted fetuses, and those cells were used to generate cell lines that are used in the production of vaccines. So the current cells are the great, great, great….great decedents of the original cells, and are not themselves from an aborted fetus. Also, no portion of the cells themselves enter the vaccine. They are used as a growth medium to help develop the virus which will ultimately be deactivated and included in the vaccine. I have sometimes heard anti-vaccers claim that “if they are grown on aborted cells, then some of the aborted cells must be in the vaccine,” but this, once again, just illustrates how little these people understand about science. This claim is really, really easy to debunk. Fruit trees grow from the ground, does that mean that apples contain dirt? Of course not. Even so, just because the virus used to make vaccines are grown using fetal cells does not mean that the vaccines contain fetal cells.

So it basically comes down to this, in the 60s a few fetuses were aborted, and scientists took advantage of those abortions to create a life saving medicine. How does any of that lead to the conclusion that using vaccines is immoral? No new fetuses are being aborted in the name of vaccines, and no fetal cells are in the vaccines. What’s done is done, we can’t change it. So, all that we can do is make the most moral choice out of the choices available to us, and the most moral choice is obviously the one that saves lives (i.e., vaccines). To put this another way, suppose that I made a cure for cancer, but in the process I used aborted fetus cells (no additional fetuses need to be aborted now that I have a cell line). Would you honestly tell the millions of people who are dying from cancer that they shouldn’t use my medicine? I sure hope not.

 

Conclusion
The obvious conclusion of all of this is quite simple, the anti-vaccine movement consists of biased, paranoid, conspiracy theorists who would rather accept the information on blogs than the information provided by professional scientists. They put the health of themselves, their children, and the entire public at risk simply because they refuse to actually consider the evidence. Their arguments are childish and easy to defeat. Anyone with a computer and access to the internet can shoot holes in their nonsense with a few minutes of honest searching. So please do everyone a favor and VACCINATE!

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The Anti-Washers: Why Anti-Vaccers Aren’t Allowed to be Insulted by Accusations That They Cause Outbreaks

A tragic and preventable story has repeatedly played itself out over the past several years. In various countries, people have been refusing vaccines, and as the vaccination rates dropped, outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases began to appear. During these outbreaks, children needlessly suffered, acquired life altering debilities, and even died. Scientists, doctors, and the media all place the blame for these outbreaks squarely on the shoulders of the anti-vaccers, which inevitably evokes a strong reaction from the anti-vaccine movement, with its followers becoming offended and irate over these “insulting” accusations. The reality is, however, that these accusations are completely merited as I will attempt to prove via an analogy.

Let’s talk about hand washing for a minute. Like vaccines, it revolutionized medicine, drastically reduced infection rates, and dramatically increased the average life span. Also, like vaccinations, it doesn’t work 100% of the time. Washing your hands regularly greatly reduces your chance of getting sick, but it doesn’t eliminate it altogether. Your odds of being healthy dramatically go up, however, when everyone around you also washes their hands because this reduces their chance of getting sick, thus reducing the chance that they will spread the disease to you (again, very much like vaccines).

Now, let’s suppose that a group of “thinking parents” decided that washing their hands was “unnatural,” and soap actually contained harmful chemicals and was just a big conspiracy by soap manufactures to make money. After all, if God had wanted them to wash their hands, surely he would have given them a soap gland in their wrist that produces soap naturally. So they decide to rely on their bodies natural defenses (after all, being exposed to all those germs builds a stronger immune system for the future). Sadly, this movement spreads and communities around the world stop washing their hands. Over time, however, a pattern emerges. All around the world in both poor and wealthy communities, whenever hand washing levels drop, disease outbreaks occur, and when you overlay a map of outbreaks with a map of areas of low hand washing levels an amazingly clear image emerges: nearly all of the outbreaks center around areas of low hand washing. However, these outbreaks don’t just affect the anti-washers. While they get sick with a much higher frequency, people around them who wash their hands still get sick from coming in contact with the anti-washers. Further, many children who are too young to wash their own hands become ill, and they tend to have the worst symptoms.

Under these circumstances, can’t we all agree that it is perfectly reasonable and fair to blame the anti-washers for these outbreaks? These outbreaks are obviously their fault, but the outbreaks of vaccine preventable disease are no different. The outbreaks consistently center around communities with low vaccination levels (Gangarosa et al. 1998; Hahne et al. 2009; Antona et al. 2013; Knol et al. 2013). They are being caused by the anti-vaccination movement, and no, anti-vaccers don’t get to be irate or offended by that accusation because they are undeniably guilty. A thief does not have the right to be offended when he is accused of stealing something. You only get to be insulted if you are innocent, and anti-vaccers are clearly guilty. Every time that vaccine rates drop, diseases come back, people get sick, and sometimes young children die. I don’t care if it is “insulting,” the truth is that anti-vaccers’ hands are covered in the blood of people who have needlessly died from preventable diseases. That’s not bullying, that’s not sensationalizing, that’s stating a scientific fact (albeit figuratively described). The anti-vaccine movement causes outbreaks which in turn cause needless suffering, life-long debilities, and even death.

Please carefully note how the measles outbreaks are centered around the communities with low vaccination rates. Image from Knol et al. 2013

Please carefully note how the measles outbreaks are centered around the communities with low vaccination rates. Image from Knol et al. 2013

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Applying Inductive and Deductive Logic to the Theory of Evolution

In a previous post, I explained the difference between inductive logic and deductive logic and how we use both types of reasoning in science (I recommend that you read that post before continuing). In this post, I am going to expand on that by demonstrating how we used both types of logic to arrive at the theory of evolution.

When Darwin constructed his theory, he began with deductive logic.

  1. Each of the Galapagos islands has its own species of tortoise
  2. The tortoises on each island are specialized for the particular habitat of that island
  3. These islands have not been present for the entire history of the earth
  4. There is a mainland tortoise that is very similar to these species, but none of these species are actually found on the mainland
  5. It is highly unlikely that at one point all of these species were on the mainland, and all of them got washed out to these islands, but only one or two species survived on each island, and all of them went extinct on the mainland
  6. Therefore, these species must have evolved from a common ancestor that drifted from the mainland

This conclusion was, of course, later supported by modern genetics, and even creationists accept Darwin’s claims on this one. This is, in fact, what creationists have termed “microevolution.” It is what Darwin did next that has creationists so upset.

  1. For many species from all over the world, we can see patterns like the Galapagos tortoises
  2. From breeding experiments we know that almost endless variations of an organism are possible
  3. There is no reason to think that there is a limit on this ability to evolve (i.e., organism should be able to accumulate in infinite number of small changes which when added together would equal many very large changes)
  4. We can see evidence of progressive changes in the fossil record
  5. Therefore, all life on planet earth evolved from a common ancestor

Notice, this is not faith, this is inductive logic. The real support of evolution of course came later. Darwin’s inductive conclusion made numerous predictions that all came true. For example, it predicted modern genetics and the biogeographical patterns that we are familiar with today. This is the strength of the theory of evolution, it makes predictions, and those predictions come true.

To conclude this post, I want to bring the concept of inductive logic to bare on the faulty argument that scientists accept that the earth is old on faith, or “assume” that decay rates are constant.

  1. Every time that we have ever measured radiometric decay rates they have been constant
  2. There is no logical reason to think that they are not constant and there are strong mathematical/logical reasons to think that they are constant
  3. Numerous experiments only work because radiometric decay is constant
  4. Therefore, radiometric decay rates are constant

In fact, the conclusion is simply the universal law of radioactive decay which states that decay rates are constant and uses mathematical formals to predict the amount of decay in a given item. Yes, you read that right, the idea that decay rates are steady is a scientific law (note: when I say “constant” or “steady” I mean that the half-life of an element does not vary with time, the actual decay of a given item is exponential).

My point here is simple, scientists are not “believing” or “assuming” that evolution is true, decay rates are constant, etc. any more than we are “believing” or “assuming” the theory of gravity or the laws of thermodynamics. Rather, we are accepting the conclusion of inductive logic, and for a creationist to say that we don’t have to accept radiometric dating because it assumes a constant decay rate is no different from saying that we don’t have to accept gravity because we are assuming that its universal. Evolution and the age of the earth are science based, not faith based.

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